6.6 Baseline/Reference Scenario

The Baseline/Reference Scenario framework projects the "business as usual" trajectory that emerges from current momentum and established trends.

Overview

The Baseline/Reference Scenario framework projects the "business as usual" trajectory that emerges from current momentum and established trends. This creates the critical reference case against which all other scenarios, strategies, and interventions are compared.

Purpose

Every strategic decision needs a baseline: What happens if we do nothing? What future unfolds through momentum alone? This framework maps the default path forward, revealing both the opportunities that existing trends create and the problems that will intensify without intervention.

Key Capabilities

Trend Extrapolation: Projects forward current trajectories based on historical patterns

Momentum Analysis: Identifies forces maintaining status quo and their relative strength

Natural Evolution Mapping: Shows how existing dynamics unfold without intervention

Inaction Cost Analysis: Quantifies what choosing not to act actually costs

Reference Point Establishment: Creates the anchor for evaluating alternatives

When to Use

• Strategic Planning: Before developing alternatives, establish what "doing nothing" means

• Investment Analysis: Understanding the baseline ROI trajectory without new initiatives\

• Risk Assessment: Identifying problems that compound through inaction

• Opportunity Analysis: Spotting benefits that mature through natural evolution

• Change Management: Demonstrating what happens without transformation efforts

Strategic Value

The baseline scenario is often the most important scenario because:

• It represents the highest probability future (continuation of existing patterns)

• It reveals the true cost of inaction across multiple dimensions

• It establishes the performance bar that alternatives must clear

• It identifies which current trends are friends vs. enemies of your strategy

• It shows where natural momentum can be leveraged vs. where intervention is essential

Integration with Other Frameworks

Complements: Four Scenarios, Wildcard & Shock Scenarios, Risk-Reward-Resilience Analysis

Contrasts with: Wildcard scenarios focus on disruption; baseline focuses on continuity

Feeds into: Strategic planning, intervention design, scenario stress-testing

Framework Philosophy

"The baseline is not a prediction—it's a strategic tool. It reveals the gravitational pull of the status quo and the effort required to escape its orbit."