6.2 Wildcard & Shock Scenarios

Identifies unlikely but devastating "black swan" events and prepares responses. Launch on platform.

What is it?

The Wildcard & Shock Scenario Generator is a systematic analytical tool designed by Dragonfly to anticipate and prepare for low-probability but high-impact disruptions (shocks). Leveraging tail-risk foresight and system dynamics modelling, it helps organisations proactively identify potential critical scenarios and develop actionable response strategies.

Why is it useful?

Using the Wildcard & Shock Scenario Generator helps you to:

Anticipate surprises: Clearly identify rare but impactful disruptions that conventional planning might overlook.

Strategize effectively: Design targeted, actionable responses to swiftly manage disruptions when they occur.

Enhance resilience: Strengthen your organisation's capacity to absorb shocks, adapt quickly, and transform proactively.

Monitor proactively: Implement comprehensive early warning indicators and monitoring protocols to detect early signals of disruptions.

How does it work?

The Generator follows a structured multi-step analytical process:

1

Driver Cross-Reference Matrix

Focus: Map how key drivers influence potential shocks and strategic implications. Example: Geopolitical tensions identified as both shock seeds and strategic considerations for global supply chains.

2

Shock Disruption Inventory

Focus: Catalogue possible wildcard disruptions and categorise them by probability and potential impact. Example: Cyber-attack disabling national power grids (Extreme Tail probability, Catastrophic impact).

3

Detailed Shock Vignettes

Focus: Develop narrative scenarios detailing triggers, immediate impacts, medium-term evolutions, and identifiable signals. Example: Scenario detailing how a significant financial market crash unfolds over 48 hours, evolves over a year, and observable market signals.

4

Strategic Impact Analysis

Focus: Analyse the core risks, hidden opportunities, resilience tests, and transformative pivots required for each identified shock. Example: Financial crisis revealing new investment opportunities in alternative assets.

5

Rapid-Response Playbook

Focus: Outline clear, actionable responses categorised into foundational actions, contingent responses triggered by early warnings, and transformative pivots. Example: Establishing contingency funding mechanisms (Foundation Action); activating emergency procurement protocols if supply chain disruption signals emerge (Contingent Response).

6

Early Warning & Monitoring System

Focus: Set up proactive monitoring frameworks using both quantitative metrics and qualitative signals to detect shocks early. Example: Monitoring cybersecurity threat intelligence feeds (quantitative) alongside expert sentiment analysis (qualitative).

Turning Wildcard & Shock Scenario Analysis into Action

To effectively utilise the Wildcard & Shock Scenario Generator:

• Communicate transparently: Clearly visualise scenarios and response plans to ensure broad organisational understanding.

• Integrate strategically: Regularly embed scenario findings into broader strategic and operational planning.

• Monitor continuously: Regularly update and refine early warning systems, keeping response protocols agile and adaptive to emerging threats.