6.1 Four Scenarios

Develops four different future scenarios based on key uncertainties. Launch on platform.

What is it?

Dragonfly’s End-to-End Scenario Generator is an advanced analytical tool specialised in complex-systems dynamics, scenario planning, and strategic foresight. It systematically crafts detailed, evidence-based scenarios to illuminate potential futures, enabling proactive decision-making in uncertain and dynamic environments.

Why is it useful?

Applying the End-to-End Scenario Generator helps you to:

Anticipate change: Understand clearly how different scenarios may unfold, influenced by interconnected drivers and feedback loops.

Inform strategy: Equip decision-makers with strategic insights that highlight key risks, opportunities, and critical uncertainties.

Enhance resilience: Identify gaps in absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing targeted recommendations.

Prioritise monitoring: Establish clear indicators and thresholds for early detection of tipping points and emerging trends.

Enable adaptability: Provide actionable strategies and guidance to respond effectively as scenarios evolve.

How does it work?

The Scenario Generator follows a structured analytical process:

1

Cover Memo

Focus: Clearly summarizes the scenario analysis purpose, macro forces overview, key scenario snapshots, cross-scenario insights, actionable strategies, and monitoring priorities. Example: Snapshot summary clearly differentiating scenarios from optimistic economic recovery to prolonged global recession.

2

Macro Forces & Scenario Overview

Focus: Synthesizes major driving forces shaping the issue, outlining key differentiating factors for each scenario. Example: Identification of technological innovation and geopolitical tensions as macro forces driving divergence in scenario outcomes.

3

Impact-Uncertainty Matrix

Focus: Categorizes key drivers by their impact and uncertainty, identifying pivotal elements that shape future scenarios. Example: Ranking energy price volatility as high impact and high uncertainty.

4

Key Uncertainties & 2 × 2 Matrices

Focus: Visualizes scenario outcomes clearly in 2 × 2 matrices, offering concise scenario quadrants based on critical uncertainties. Example: Mapping global trade openness and technological breakthrough rates.

5

How the Scenarios Were Selected

Focus: Explains the logic and selection criteria behind choosing the most relevant scenario quadrants. Example: Rationale for prioritising quadrants emphasising trade openness and climate resilience.

6

Scenario Details

Focus: Provides comprehensive short-, medium-, and long-term outlooks for each scenario, integrating detailed feedback loops, driver trajectories, stakeholder impacts, and system archetypes. Example: Detailed narrative illustrating how early market signals evolve into dominant industry trends through reinforcing loops.

Turning Scenario Analysis into Action

To effectively use Dragonfly’s Scenario Generator:

• Clearly visualise outcomes: Present scenarios in a structured, easily digestible format highlighting critical tipping points.

• Strategically integrate insights: Incorporate scenarios into decision-making processes, regularly revisiting and adjusting strategies.

• Establish proactive monitoring: Develop robust indicator systems and adaptive responses to continually refine strategic foresight capabilities.