6.4 Multi-Branch Scenarios

Creates decision trees showing how choices cascade into different realities. Launch on platform.

What is it?

Dragonfly's Multi-Branch Single Scenario Analyst is an advanced strategic planning tool that maps decision trees across multiple possible futures. It models complex situations as a garden of forking paths, quantifying probabilities at each decision point while tracking Risk, Reward, and Resilience (RRR) impacts throughout the scenario evolution.

Why is it useful?

Applying the Multi-Branch Scenario Analyst helps you to:

Navigate uncertainty: Map multiple futures simultaneously, with clear probabilities and decision consequences at each branching point.

Quantify trade-offs: Track cumulative Risk, Reward, and Resilience impacts across different paths, enabling data-driven choices.

Identify leverage points: Discover critical decision nodes and tipping points that dramatically alter outcomes.

Establish kill-switches: Define clear thresholds and contingency triggers to prevent catastrophic failure paths.

Enable dynamic planning: Create executable strategies that adapt as scenarios unfold, not static reports.

How does it work?

The Multi-Branch Analyst follows a dual-output analytical process:

1

Narrative Report

Focus: Tells the strategic story through engaging prose, weaving decision points naturally into the narrative flow Example: "The team faced a critical choice: pursue aggressive expansion (60% probability) or consolidate current position (40% probability)..."

2

Context Capsule & Initial Conditions

Focus: Establishes the strategic landscape, stakeholder dynamics, resources, and potential wildcards. Example: Mapping adversary capabilities, alliance structures, and black swan events that could trigger alternate tracks.

3

Phase Architecture

Focus: Details each time period's decision matrices with options, probabilities, and RRR impacts for every choice. Example: Phase 1 decision showing Option A (40%) leads to +2 Risk but +5 Reward, while Option B (60%) maintains stability.

4

Branch Synopsis Tree

Focus: Visualises all scenario paths with cumulative probabilities, automatically collapsing low-probability branches (<5%). Example: Success Path (24% cumulative), Struggle Path (21%), Crisis Path (15%), with abandoned branches in "Path Graveyard."

5

Metrics & Kill-Switches

Focus: Establishes hard triggers and monitoring thresholds that force immediate pivots or scenario aborts. Example: "If market share drops below 15% → Execute defensive strategy; If funding falls below $2M → Initiate wind-down protocol."

6

RRR Waterfall

Focus: Tracks phase-by-phase accumulation of Risk, Reward, and Resilience, showing how each decision compounds over time. Example: Phase 1: Risk +3, Reward +2, Resilience +1; Phase 2: Risk +5 (cumulative 8), Reward +7 (cumulative 9).

Turning Scenario Analysis into Action

To effectively use Dragonfly's Multi-Branch Analyst:

• Start with clear stakes: Define what you're trying to avoid (worst case) and achieve (best case) to guide decision priorities.

• Monitor branch probabilities: Regularly update probabilities as new information emerges, pruning dead branches and exploring promising paths.

• Execute with confidence: Use the quantified trade-offs and pre-defined triggers to make rapid decisions as scenarios unfold in real-time.