4.5 Cynefin Analysis

Categorises problems (simple, complicated, complex, chaotic) to determine the right approach. Launch on platform.arrow-up-right

What is it?

The Cynefin framework (pronounced kuh‑NEV‑in, Welsh for "habitat") is a practical tool to make sense of complexity and uncertainty, guiding actions based on the type of challenge faced. Developed by Dave Snowden at IBM in the early 2000s, it helps diagnose situations accurately and respond effectively.

Why is it useful?

  • Avoid costly mistakes: Don’t treat complex issues as simple (or vice versa).

  • Strengthen agility: Tailor responses to the nature of the problem.

  • Enhance clarity: Understand why certain approaches succeed or fail.

  • Build resilience: Diagnose challenges to adapt and recover faster.

How does it work?

Cynefin identifies five domains, each with a distinct approach:

Clear (Obvious) – “Best Practice”

  • Characteristics: Stable, predictable, clear cause‑and‑effect.

  • Approach: Sense → Categorise → Respond.

  • Example: Routine monthly reporting; standard onboarding.

Complicated – “Good Practice”

  • Characteristics: Knowable solutions requiring expert analysis.

  • Approach: Sense → Analyse → Respond.

  • Example: Engineering tasks; regulatory compliance; diagnosis.

Complex – “Emergent Practice”

  • Characteristics: Dynamic, unpredictable; patterns clear in hindsight.

  • Approach: Probe → Sense → Respond.

  • Example: Product innovation; market entry; culture change.

Chaotic – “Novel Practice”

  • Characteristics: Urgent, unstable; unclear causality; immediate action needed.

  • Approach: Act → Sense → Respond.

  • Example: Crisis management; natural disasters; cyber breaches.

Disorder – “Clarify First”

  • Characteristics: Unclear which domain applies.

  • Approach: Clarify the problem and categorise into one of the four domains.

  • Example: Early responses to unprecedented crises; ambiguous challenges.

Turning Cynefin Analysis into Action

  • Diagnose first: Identify the domain before choosing an approach.

  • Match practice to domain: Best/Good/Emergent/Novel as appropriate.

  • Reassess continuously: Domains can shift; adapt responses accordingly.

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