5.5 Pre-Mortem Analysis
Starts with assuming your project has failed spectacularly, then conducts a clear-eyed forensic investigation of how that happened. Launch on platform.
What is it?
Dragonfly’s Pre-Mortem Inquiry is a structured foresight and failure-analysis framework designed to rigorously anticipate and deconstruct future breakdowns—before they occur. Rather than predicting success, it simulates failure. By reverse-engineering collapse, the Pre-Mortem exposes the hidden weaknesses, systemic risks, and human dynamics that might otherwise be overlooked during planning and execution. Acting as a strategic "failure analyst," this approach combines forensic investigation, scenario planning, and causal mapping to help organizations understand how well-intentioned initiatives unravel—and what must change to prevent them. It is not about pessimism, but about resilient design.
Why is it useful?
Employing the Pre-Mortem Inquiry helps you to:
Anticipate failure pathways: Surface how specific risks—technical, human, political—compound into larger systemic breakdowns.
Strengthen design resilience: Map causal chains, tipping points, and feedback loops that reveal which small problems become catastrophic.
Challenge success bias: Create space for psychologically safe reflection on failure possibilities in environments prone to optimism and groupthink.
Identify critical interventions: Distinguish between superficial corrections and deeper leverage points that truly reduce risk.
Institutionalize learning: Translate failure analysis into repeatable playbooks, early warning indicators, and resilience-enhancing reforms.
How does it work?
The Pre-Mortem Inquiry involves a phased, narratively driven methodology:
Failure Simulation
Focus: Begin by articulating a vivid and plausible future failure scenario. This includes a public narrative of collapse and a quantified impact dashboard that breaks down damage across financial, reputational, operational, and human dimensions. Example: A technology pilot is cancelled after severe cost overruns and a breakdown in vendor relationships, resulting in a $20M loss and public disavowal.
Causal Reconstruction
Focus: Reconstruct the timeline of decay, mapping how early decisions and warning signs led to later breakdowns. Identify hidden assumptions, blind spots, and key moments where course correction was missed. Example: Early ambiguity in success criteria triggered misaligned deliverables, stakeholder mistrust, and compounding execution failures.
Systems and Human Analysis
Focus: Analyze the organizational system and human behavior behind the collapse. Trace feedback loops, examine failure cascades, decompose root causes, and assess capability maturity and stakeholder incentives. Example: Optimism bias in leadership, over-engineered architecture, and a “no bad news” culture created blind momentum toward collapse.
Counterfactual Scenarios
Focus: Examine alternative histories—what could have gone differently, what required "miracles" to succeed, and which truths remained undiscussable. Identify key decision points where success was still possible. Example: A strategic pause and re-baseline could have salvaged delivery if political incentives had aligned.
The Resilience Playbook
Focus: Translate insights into action. Recommend targeted, measurable preventative measures and early warning systems, and build long-term learning mechanisms to avoid repetition. Example: Mandatory pre-mortem reviews, partner stress-testing, and organizational memory systems like failure repositories and alumni retrospectives.
Turning Scenario Analysis into Action
To effectively utilize the Pre-Mortem Inquiry:
Simulate, then dissect: Begin with a plausible but serious failure scenario, then rigorously unpack its anatomy.
Ground analysis in narrative and data: Use compelling narrative to engage stakeholders, and quantified impacts to drive prioritization.
Design for realism, not reassurance: Ensure that preventative measures are actionable within your actual cultural, political, and financial constraints.
Build capability, not just awareness: Treat the pre-mortem not as a report, but as a learning infrastructure that supports institutional resilience.
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