5.1 Scenario Creator

Develops four different future scenarios based on key uncertainties. Launch on platform.

What is it?

Dragonfly’s End-to-End Scenario Generator is an advanced analytical tool specialized in complex-systems dynamics, scenario planning, and strategic foresight. It systematically crafts detailed, evidence-based scenarios to illuminate potential futures, enabling proactive decision-making in uncertain and dynamic environments.


Why is it useful?

Applying the End-to-End Scenario Generator helps you to:

Anticipate change: Understand clearly how different scenarios may unfold, influenced by interconnected drivers and feedback loops.

Inform strategy: Equip decision-makers with strategic insights that highlight key risks, opportunities, and critical uncertainties.


Enhance resilience: Identify gaps in absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing targeted recommendations.


Prioritize monitoring: Establish clear indicators and thresholds for early detection of tipping points and emerging trends.


Enable adaptability: Provide actionable strategies and guidance to respond effectively as scenarios evolve.

How does it work?

The Scenario Generator follows a structured analytical process:


1

Cover Memo


Focus: Clearly summarizes the scenario analysis purpose, macro forces overview, key scenario snapshots, cross-scenario insights, actionable strategies, and monitoring priorities.
 Example: Snapshot summary clearly differentiating scenarios from optimistic economic recovery to prolonged global recession.

2

Macro Forces & Scenario Overview


Focus: Synthesizes major driving forces shaping the issue, outlining key differentiating factors for each scenario.
 Example: Identification of technological innovation and geopolitical tensions as macro forces driving divergence in scenario outcomes.


3

Impact-Uncertainty Matrix


Focus: Categorizes key drivers by their impact and uncertainty, identifying pivotal elements that shape future scenarios.
 Example: Ranking energy price volatility as high impact and high uncertainty.

4

Key Uncertainties & 2 × 2 Matrices


Focus: Visualizes scenario outcomes clearly in 2 × 2 matrices, offering concise scenario quadrants based on critical uncertainties.
 Example: Mapping global trade openness and technological breakthrough rates.

5

How the Scenarios Were Selected


Focus: Explains the logic and selection criteria behind choosing the most relevant scenario quadrants.
 Example: Rationale for prioritizing quadrants emphasizing trade openness and climate resilience.

6

Scenario Details


Focus: Provides comprehensive short-, medium-, and long-term outlooks for each scenario, integrating detailed feedback loops, driver trajectories, stakeholder impacts, and system archetypes.
 Example: Detailed narrative illustrating how early market signals evolve into dominant industry trends through reinforcing loops.

Turning Scenario Analysis into Action

To effectively use Dragonfly’s Scenario Generator:

• Clearly visualize outcomes: Present scenarios in a structured, easily digestible format highlighting critical tipping points.


• Strategically integrate insights: Incorporate scenarios into decision-making processes, regularly revisiting and adjusting strategies.


• Establish proactive monitoring: Develop robust indicator systems and adaptive responses to continually refine strategic foresight capabilities.