8.3 Economic Sanctions Analyst

Assesses sanctions as geopolitical tools considering coalitions, impacts, and responses. Launch on platform.

What is it?

Dragonfly’s Economic Sanctions Analyst is a comprehensive analytical tool designed to evaluate scenarios involving economic coercion and sanctions. This structured analysis helps organizations systematically assess sanctions-related threats, impacts, and strategic responses, ensuring informed decision-making in complex geopolitical environments.


Why is it useful?

Utilizing the Economic Sanctions Analyst helps you to:


Classify clearly: Quickly categorize sanction scenarios (active, threatened, or hybrid), providing clarity on the current status and urgency. Understand instruments: Precisely identify coercive tools, their scope, enforcement mechanisms, and potential interactions. Assess impact rigorously: Evaluate material consequences, asymmetrical costs, and enforcement feasibility comprehensively. Analyze political dynamics: Map domestic and international political pressures, coalitions, and likely responses from both Sender and Target. Develop resilience proactively: Recommend targeted short-, medium-, and long-term resilience and mitigation actions. Navigate legality effectively: Address compliance with international legal frameworks and norms, outlining possible remedies and strategic diplomatic moves. Formulate actionable strategies: Synthesize insights into strategic options, recommended paths, and detailed implementation roadmaps.


How does it work?

The Analyst follows a structured process consisting of seven main analytical components:


1

Scenario Classification

Focus: Clearly determine if sanctions are actively imposed, threatened, or hybrid.


Example: Classification of trade sanctions as hybrid, given partial implementation and looming additional measures.


2

Instrument Identification

Focus: Precisely define sanction tools, including trade, financial measures, personal sanctions, regulatory actions, and boycott initiatives.


Example: Financial sanctions blocking key financial institutions from international transactions.


3

Material Impact Assessment

Focus: Evaluate enforcement challenges, exit-cost asymmetries, and sector-specific impacts comprehensively.

Example: Detailed feasibility rating indicating high enforcement effectiveness but significant circumvention risks through alternate financial channels.

4

Political Impact Assessment

Focus: Map internal political coalitions, anticipate resistance or compliance, and forecast Sender and Target dynamics.


Example: Domestic pressures on Sender government from export-dependent industries versus nationalist political factions.


5

Resilience & Mitigation Measures

Focus: Outline prioritized actions to bolster immediate, medium-term, and strategic resilience.

Example: Establishing emergency financial reserve funds (short-term), diversifying trade partnerships (medium-term).


6

Legal & International-Norms Analysis

Focus: Assess sanction legality under WTO, FTA, BIT frameworks; identify available legal remedies and diplomatic actions.


Example: Evaluating the legitimacy of sanctions under national security clauses, advising on WTO dispute settlements.


7

Strategic Synthesis & Roadmap

Focus: Provide clear strategic options, comparative analysis, recommended course of action, and a phased implementation plan.


Example: Strategic option comparison highlighting potential escalation risks and success probabilities.


Turning Economic Sanctions Analysis into Action

To effectively apply Dragonfly’s Economic Sanctions Analyst:

• Visualize strategically: Clearly communicate findings and response plans visually to stakeholders.

• Implement pragmatically: Regularly integrate insights into operational planning and risk management.

• Monitor continuously: Constantly refine strategies and responses based on evolving political and economic dynamics.